21 09 22 | What Does Europe Think About The Grain Crisis?

    21 09 22 | What Does Europe Think About The Grain Crisis?

    In the past week, grain markets did not undergo a clear development, despite the incoming data of a disappointing harvest of corn and sunflower in Europe. Against this backdrop, Turkey has once again taxed sunflower imports into the country to relieve domestic producers.


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    How did the EC react to the protest? "your request will be examined and analysed, despite our expectations that the situation will normalise...", are the words of European Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski.

    Russia in anticipation of the new harvest - the advance of harvesting has caused a number of European countries to revise their export forecasts due to the competitiveness of grain crops of Russian origin.

    More insights in this week’s report for our paid subscribers:

    What affects prices? – we are witnessing a situation in which not the usual factors (quantity and quality of production, demand and supply, etc.) but political decisions influence the price of grain.

    Europe vs. Europe – Farmers from Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and France protested against imports of cheaper Ukrainian grain and poultry, which lowers prices and is competing for space at local ports.

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    In Bulgaria, grain producers from Dobrich, Vidin, Montana and other cities in the country protested against the unregulated import of grain from Ukraine, as well as against some of the requirements under the Green Deal.

    In response to popular discontent, our country asked the European Commission to implement extraordinary measures due to the disturbances on the grain market.

    At the meeting organised by the European Commission in Prague, the acting Deputy Minister of Agriculture Georgi Sabev said: "...in the current situation of market and price volatility, it should be ensured that the measures taken to mitigate the effects of the hot war now taking place in Europe do not undermine the competitiveness and viability of key sectors for European agriculture".

     

    Is Europe looking at Ukrainian exports?

    The European response was cold and terse and came from Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski: “Your request will be considered and analysed, despite our expectations that the situation will normalise after the opening of the processing industry in Ukraine.”

    In the Black Sea region, a growing Russian harvest has prompted a number of European countries to revise their export forecasts. France AgriMer revised its forecast for wheat exports to third countries down to 10 million tonnes from 10.3 million tonnes in July, due to the competitiveness of the grain crops of Russian origin.

    On the Old Continent, Coceral revised its estimate for EU corn production down to just 51.9 million tonnes versus 66 million tonnes estimated in May. Soft wheat production is now estimated at 140.5 million tonnes compared to 143.4 million tonnes last year.

    Ending stocks are slightly different, now estimated at 2.36 million tonnes compared to 2.34 million tonnes in July, with forage consumption increasing to 4.4 million tonnes as a result of its competitiveness against corn. For barley, end-of-season stocks for 2022/23 are estimated at 1.66 million tonnes, compared with 1.56 million tonnes estimated in July.

    An increase was observed in the import of rapeseed oil in the EU. The EU imported 1.16 million tonnes of rapeseed as of 11 September, up from 830,570 tonnes last year to date.

    Overseas, at the beginning of the week the dollar once again regained ground against the European currency at a level of 0.9995 per euro. Oil prices remained slightly volatile, with a barrel trading at $85.55 on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday morning.

    In the US, weekly corn exports were nearly 583,100 tonnes, in line with expectations. Wheat exports remained somewhat disappointing - 217,300 tonnes. Soybean exports continued to move at a steady pace, at around 843,000 tonnes.

    In Argentina, the upcoming wheat harvest may be lower than expected, as a result of the drought that has hit the country in recent weeks.

    Canada expects records

    StatCan released its forecast for Canada's whole wheat crop which amounts to 34.7 million tonnes, up from 22.3 million tonnes last year, with durum wheat production estimated at 6.1 million tonnes, which is about twice more than last year. Rapeseed production is estimated at 19.1 million tonnes compared to 13.8 million tonnes a year ago.


    World markets


    Futures by the 20th of September

    Wheat
    Data Chicago
    12. 2022

    (per/tonne)
    London
    11. 2022

    (per/tonne)
    Paris
    12. 2022

    (per/tonne)
    14.09
    $ 320,46
     

    £ 277,15
     

    € 337,25
     
    15.09  
    $ 310,45
     

    £ 273,00
     
     
    € 332,50
     
    16.09
    $ 311,25
     

    £ 271,35
     
     
    € 334,25
     
    19.09
    $ 313,20
     

    £ 270,95
     

    € 329,25
     
    20.09
    $ 309,75
     

    £ 271,25
     

    € 328,85
     

    Corn
    Data Chicago
    12. 2022

    (per/tonne)
    Paris
     11. 2022

    (per/tonne)
    14.09
    $ 268,60
     

     € 331,00
     
    15.09
     $ 266,73
     

     € 329,00
     
    16.09
     $ 265,00
     

     € 328,25
     
    19.09
     $ 266,20
     

    € 326,00
     
    20.09
     $ 265,80
     

    € 324,00
     

    Source: Euronext, CME, ICE

    The real market in Agriniser

    Trending prices according to negotiations in the platform (available for paid subscription users)

      Feed wheat Corn
    Region Price excl VAT Price excl VAT
    North-West *** bgn/t.. *** bgn/t.
    North Central *** bgn/t. *** bgn/t.
    North-East *** bgn/t. *** bgn/t.
    South-East *** bgn/t. *** bgn/t.
    South Central *** bgn/t. *** bgn/t.
    South-West *** bgn/t. *** bgn/t.

    Cereals Price excl VAT
    Wheat *** bgn/t.
    Sunflower seeds *** bgn/t.
       
     

    The week at Agriniser    

    The week at the platform reflected the general trend of the market – waiting for better and fair grain prices.

    We are witnessing a situation in which not the usual factors (the quantity and quality of production, demand and supply, etc.) but political decisions influence the price of grain.

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    Exports from our country in September

    By 20 September, exports from our home ports reached 211,000 tonnes of grain. Algeria did not stop buying Bulgarian wheat, since the beginning of the month their purchases amount to nearly 120,000 tonnes.
     

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