Last week passed without sharp shocks in the grain markets in the short term. The renewal of the Black Sea Corridor is still not an official fact, but it seems that it will most likely be re-signed.
Don’t have time to read the entire market report? Here’s what you need to know:
Is new help coming for the farmers? – The State Agricultural Fund announced that farmers who missed the deadlines for applying for aid due to the war in Ukraine in September now have a second chance to do so between the 14th and 18th of November.
Lifting the barrier to Russian fertilisers– The Netherlands has announced that it will unblock a shipment of 20,000 tonnes of Russian fertilisers that are being stored at the port of Rotterdam because of the sanctions. The shipment is expected to be diverted to Malawi through the World Food Programme.
More insights in this week’s report for our paid subscribers
Agriniser - trade internationally! – users of the platform found some of the offers published abroad interesting and began to negotiate on them. They shared that this opens up new opportunities for their business.
European or Russian grain? - In international auctions, the European origin constantly competes with the Russian one. The recovery of the euro against the dollar also implies a new element that further weighs on the European origin.
In Bulgaria, the lack of soil moisture remains a limiting factor for vegetation in autumn crops. A ray of hope appeared from the Ministry of Agriculture, but it quickly disappeared under the hanging clouds of doubt.
A few days ago, the State Agricultural Fund announced that farmers who missed the deadlines for applying for aid because of the war in Ukraine in September, now have a second chance to do so between the 14th and 18th of November.
Many linked the news to the proposal submitted to the EC that the ceiling on emergency support under all crisis measures this year should jump from €62,000 to an unprecedented €250,000 per farm. Minister Yavor Gechev himself announced that the updated ceiling will be applied retroactively. All of this has put some of the industry on alert as to when, where and how the funds will be distributed.
In the Black Sea region, the agreement on Ukrainian exports through the established corridor expires at the end of next week, but many observers believe it will be extended.
In support of this statement came the call from the United Nations for countries around the world to lift the barriers to the export of Russian fertilisers.
"The world cannot afford to let global problems with access to fertilisers turn into global food shortages," the UN warned. The World Organization called for the removal of all remaining obstacles to the export of fertilisers to the countries most in need to be accelerated.
As a result of the appeal, the Netherlands already announced on Friday that it will unblock a shipment of 20,000 tonnes of Russian fertilisers that are sitting at the port of Rotterdam because of the sanctions. The shipment is expected to be redirected to Malawi through the World Food Programme next week.
On the Old Continent, the EU has exported 12.52 million tonnes of wheat since the start of the campaign, compared to 11.92 million tonnes last year. France is the leading exporter in the EU with 5.05 million tonnes, followed by Romania with 1.65 million tonnes.
For maize, the EU has imported 10.18 million tonnes so far, compared to just 4.64 million tonnes last year. Barley exports are estimated at 2.47 million tonnes, down from 4.27 million tonnes last year.
Overseas, the dollar started the week with a decrease against the European currency at a level of 1.0318 per euro. Oil prices were almost unchanged after trading at $88.60 per barrel on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday morning.
Forecasts for a weaker harvest in Argentina obviously lead to great uncertainty for the upcoming harvest throughout the Southern Hemisphere.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported wheat production of 12.4 million tonnes in its latest forecast, a level well below recent estimates and even those of the USDA. The Rosario Stock Exchange also estimated a high potential for a decline in wheat exports from Argentina.
Thus, the volume of exported wheat for the 2022/2023 campaign could fall by more than 50% compared to last year, reaching only 7 million tonnes, amid the decline in production.
Schimburi mondiale
Piețele futures (nu fizice) faţă de 15.11
Toate preţurile sunt exprimate în moneda naţională respectivă pe tonă
$ 1 = 1,87473 лв
£ 1 = 2,23832 лв
€ 1 = 1,95583 лв
| Wheat | |||
| Data |
Chicago '12. 2022 (pret/tona) |
London '01. 2023 (pret/tona) |
Paris '12. 2022 (pret/tona) |
| '9.11 |
$ 295,21 (,00 лв.) |
£ 268,40 (,00 лв.) |
€ 328,25 (,00 лв.) |
| '10.11 |
$ 298,97 (,00 лв.) |
£ 264,65 (,00 лв.) |
€ 327,00 (,00 лв.) |
| '11.11 |
$ 301,00 (,00 лв.) |
£ 264,15 (,00 лв.) |
€ 327,00 (,00 лв.) |
| '14.11 |
$ 298,15 (,00 лв.) |
£ 263,20 (,00 лв.) |
€ 323,25 (,00 лв.) |
| '15.11 |
$ 298,75 (,00 лв.) |
£ 264,15 (,00 лв.) |
€ 320,00 (,00 лв.) |
| Corn | |||
| Data |
Chicago '12. 2022 (pret/tona) |
Paris ' 03. 2023 (pret/tona) |
|
| '9.11 |
$ 261,61 (,00 лв.) |
€ 323,75 (,00 лв.) |
|
| '10.11 |
$ 257,18 (,00 лв.) |
€ 321,50 (,00 лв.) |
|
| '11.11 |
$ 259,05 (,00 лв.) |
€ 319,75 (,00 лв.) |
|
| '14.11 |
$ 261,00 (,00 лв.) |
€ 317,75 (,00 лв.) |
|
| '15.11 |
$ 259,85 (,00 лв.) |
€ 311,50 (,00 лв.) |
|
Surse: Euronext, CME, ICE
Piața reală în Agriniser
Preţuri actuale după negocierile din platformă| Wheat | Corn | |
| Region | Price | Price |
| Nord-Vest | 612 bgn/t. | 564 bgn/t. |
| Nord Central | 613 bgn/t. | 566 bgn/t. |
| Nord-Est | 625 bgn/t. | 577 bgn/t. |
| Sud-Est | 622 bgn/t. | 575 bgn/t. |
| Sud Central | 618 bgn/t. | 568 bgn/t. |
| Sud_Vest | 614 bgn/t. | 565 bgn/t. |
| Product | Price |
| Grâu comun | 637 bgn/t. |
| Floarea soarelui – oleaginousă | 1095 bgn/t. |
The week at Agriniser
The week at Agriniser was spent under the sign of international negotiations. Many users of the platform found some of the offers published abroad interesting and began to negotiate on them.
They shared that this opens up new opportunities for their business.
In the last year, the platform has introduced a number of improvements, some of which were at your request, to make the entire grain trading process faster, more accessible and more productive.
Today, the possibilities for publishing an offer without a previously announced price, negotiations on an offer from abroad, access to specialised and specific information, the advance sharing of contacts, etc., with which you can make your informed choice when buying and selling grain, are already a fact.
Access to information is key to grain trade. Thanks to the established partnerships with leading agencies and companies, as well as the professionally assembled team, at Agriniser you get not only access to the most up-to-date information, but also to information on the future development of the markets.
Do not miss our agricultural blog section, where you will find extremely interesting and practical information about agriculture these days.
Exports from our country in November
By mid-November, exports from our home ports reached almost 95,000 tonnes of grain. The data show that the strongest interest is in wheat.
After a ship with 45,000 tonnes of wheat for Bangladesh was loaded at the port of Varna, a ship for Algeria with 30,000 tonnes of wheat left the same port a few days later.
The port of Burgas reported that another 3,300 tonnes of wheat were loaded for Greece.
Also, 10,000 tonnes of Sunflower oil departed to Spain and Austria.
What is the state of grain crops?
According to NIMH data, during most days of the next seven-day period, the agrometeorological conditions will be determined by temperatures close to the climatic norms. Rainfall is forecasted at the beginning of the period, but it will be of no economic importance, and the lack of soil moisture remains a limiting factor for the vegetation of the sown autumn crops.
In the southern regions and in the next period, the absence of moisture in the upper soil layers will delay the germination of winter grain crops. As a result of the deepening autumn drought, the wheat crops in the Danube plain and in the eastern regions of the country have sprouted unevenly.
Part of the winter grain crops, which are in the initial stage of their vegetation, is in critical condition. There is an increased chance of desiccation of the germinated seeds and the sprouted, poorly rooted crops in places in the southeast.
And in the next period, the dry and compacted soil will prevent seasonal tillage and delay the completion of winter grain crops sowing.
A chance of rain and a positive change in the agro-meteorological conditions is forecasted at the end of the next seven-day period.
World grain exchange
On the international stage, GASC purchased 280,000 tonnes of wheat of Russian origin. Tunisia is said to have finaliSed negotiations to buy 100,000 tonnes of common wheat, 100,000 tonnes of durum wheat and 50,000 tonnes of feed barley with deliveries announced between December and next January.
The US sold 338,600 tonnes of corn to Mexico, 264,000 tonnes of soybeans to China and 198,000 tonnes to an undisclosed destination. Taiwan bought 65,000 tonnes of corn from Brazil.
Algeria is reported to have finally bought 510,000 tonnes of wheat in its auction. Most of the supply will probably be from Russia, but part of it will be from France.
European exporters follow international activity and agreed price levels with great interest. The European origin is constantly competing with the Russian one. The recovery of the euro against the dollar also implies a new element that weighs on the European origin.
On the other hand, a falling dollar and hopes of easing of China's COVID-19 health restrictions are giving hope for an increase in overseas demand.
Black Sea region
Romania has revised its National Recovery Plan in light of the severe drought that has gripped the Balkans. The purpose of the correction is to redirect an additional 2 million euros for irrigation in the country.
"For us, food and energy security are priorities in the coming period. We have several plans to help farmers and others are already under discussion. They affect farmers who are affected by the drought, as well as dairy farmers," said Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca.
Marcel Ciolacu, the chairman of the Chamber of Representatives in the Romanian Parliament, also spoke on the subject. He was adamant that all available funds for business development should be redirected to agriculture.
Ukraine - The UN has made a delivery of "packages" for winter crop storage as the country faces a significant shortage of storage capacity caused by the ongoing war.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) says it has secured more than 30,000 sacks that will help ease the storage deficit by 6 million tonnes. Over 7,500 sacks have already been distributed to 356 farms. Another 1,500 farmers received grain sleeves. Each of them can hold about 200 tonnes of grain.
The sleeves, which are 60 meters long and 2.7 meters wide, are loaded by a machine that slowly stretches the sleeve along the ground as the grain is poured into it.
Local grain prices have fallen since the conflict began in February, and Ukrainian farmers say they still face export difficulties and high costs due to power outages following missile attacks on energy facilities.
“We are trying to encourage farmers to keep the grain and wait for a better price. This is important for their economy, they need money," said FAO spokeswoman in Ukraine Viktoria Mikhalchuk.
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