14 09 2022 | Farmer discontent engulfs Europe

    14 09 2022 | Farmer discontent engulfs Europe

    The period was relatively static for the prices of the main grain crops at the world commodity exchanges and markets, in the context of the accelerating recession, the statements of the Russian authorities regarding the Black Sea corridor and the unprecedented drought in Europe.

    Don’t have time to read the entire market report? Here’s what you need to know:  

    Farmers on a strike farmers are protesting against the unregulated import of grain from Ukraine, as well as against part of the requirements under the Green Deal.

    Inflation in Europe –  The ECB raised its key interest rates by 75 basis points in a bid to rein in inflation, raising fears of a negative impact on economic growth.

    More insights in this week’s report for our paid subscribers:

    Look at fertilisers today – what started as an energy crisis has become a fertiliser crisis and will soon become a food crisis. If you still haven't secured the fertilisers you need for the new campaign, you can do it right now on Agriniser.

    Russia blamed Europe for the grain – the president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, said that grain from Ukraine does not reach the poor countries of the world, but is mainly exported to the EU member states. In response, Zelensky said: "unlike Russia, we are not making a racist division of the world.”  Where is the truth?

    In Bulgaria, grain producers from Dobrich, Vidin, Montana and other cities of the country are protesting against the unregulated import of grain from Ukraine, as well as against part of the requirements under the Green Deal.

    "The protest is organised jointly in several countries, led by the Visegrad Four, supported by other countries such as Romania, Croatia, Moldova. Bulgaria will also take part in this international protest, which is organised in support of agricultural producers throughout the European Union, and was born of the high inflation that occurred in the last year. Bulgarian farmers will also protest against the unregulated import of grain from Ukraine, against the high prices of fuels, fertilisers and preparations,” Zhechko Andrejnski, chairman of the association in Vidin, told BNR.

    "What grain producers from European countries, including in Bulgaria, are doing is the right way. Farmers are protesting in different parts of Europe, for different causes, and I think that this is a normal practice and enjoys my trust," said the official deputy Minister of Agriculture Georgi Sabev

    In the Black Sea region, the issue of grain corridors from Ukraine was put on the table again.

    On the one hand, the agreement signed on July 22 has a validity period of only 120 days, which suggests that it will expire in mid-October.

    On the other hand, the Russian president made serious accusations against the European community, according to which Ukrainian grain is not enough for those in need.

    "We did everything to ensure that Ukrainian grain would be exported. We did it together with Turkey. If we exclude Turkey as an intermediary country, virtually all grain exported from Ukraine is not going to poorer developing countries but to the European Union," Vladimir Putin said, speaking at the forum in Vladivostok.

    "Perhaps we should consider limiting the direction of grain and commercial food exports to Europe. I will certainly consult with Turkish President Mr. Erdogan on this matter," he concluded.

    On the Old Continent, the ECB raised its key interest rates by 75 basis points in an attempt to rein in inflation, raising fears of a negative impact on economic growth.

    In its analysis, the bank expects prices to increase by 8.1% this year, by 5.5% in 2023 and by 2.3% in 2024.

    Fertilisers are also a problem for Europe – the market is becoming increasingly tight with supply risks for the upcoming agricultural year as a result of high gas prices and some industry shutdowns.

    Overseas, at the beginning of the week the dollar continued to retreat against the European currency at a level of 1.0080 per euro. Oil prices recorded another decrease, with a barrel trading at $85.40 on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday morning.

    The US market remained closed on Monday due to the Labor Day weekend. This helped prices recover slightly at the end of the week.

    Data for weekly US wheat exports remained within the expected 477,657 tonnes. Corn exports totaled 518,373 tonnes, and soybeans 495,845 tonnes, both at the lower end of expectations.

    Brazil's national agricultural agency Conab slightly lowered its forecast for the 2021-22 grain and oilseed crop harvest due to dry weather conditions in many areas of the country.

    Production of the 2021-22 harvest is now expected to reach 271.2 million tonnes, which would be a record, surpassing the 257 million tonnes reached in 2019-20.

    From a climate perspective, India's drought has prompted the country to impose a 20% tax on rice exports to cope with declining production.


    World markets

    Futures by the 13th of September

    Data Chicago
    12. 2022

    11. 2022

    12. 2022

     $ 310,18
    £ 271,00


     € 329,75
     $ 304,57

    £ 268,00

     € 324,50
     $ 319,45

     £ 275,25

     € 339,25
     $ 315,50

     £ 275,85

     € 336,25
     $ 316,00

     £ 277,00

     € 337,75

    Data Chicago
    12. 2022

     11. 2022

     $ 264,17

     € 323,25
     $ 263,19

     € 319,50

     € 329,25
    $ 274,02


     € 328,75
     $ 275,00

     € 329,50

    Source: Euronext, CME, ICE

    The real market in Agriniser

    Trending prices according to negotiations in the platform

      Feed wheat Corn
    Region Price excl VAT Price excl VAT
    North-West 619 bgn/t. 603 bgn/t.
    Nord Central 624 bgn/t. 605 bgn/t.
    North-East 631 bgn/t. 609 bgn/t.
    South-East 629 bgn/t. 607 bgn/t.
    South Central 625 bgn/t. 605 bgn/t.
    South-West 623 bgn/t. 604 bgn/t.

    Cereals Price excl VAT
    Wheat 645 bgn/t.
    Sunflower seeds 1053 bgn/t.


    The week at Agriniser   

    The week at the platform passed under the sign of fertilisers. The company is putting a lot of effort in this direction, in an attempt to help agriculture in the country to overcome the difficult situation that the whole of Europe is facing.

    In July, when natural gas prices in Europe were well below today's levels, the International Fertiliser Association estimated that a prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with declining fertiliser use due to high costs, could lead to the loss of nearly 2 percent of the world's corn, wheat, rice and soybeans.

    Gas problems have imposed even higher costs on consumers and heavy industry on the continent. But this situation has hit Europe's fertilisers particularly hard. To date, the continent has cut 70 percent of its production capacity due to skyrocketing natural gas prices.

    And as more and more factories are being closed down, the harsh reality of Europe's energy crisis is becoming clear: what started as an energy crisis has turned into a fertiliser crisis and will soon turn into a food crisis.

    According to the association, at the beginning of 2021, one ton of ammonia cost farmers in Western Europe about $250 per tonne. That same fertiliser today sells for about $1,250 a tonne, and predictions are that this isn't the end.

    If you still haven't secured the fertilisers you need for the new campaign, you can do it right now at Agriniser by looking at the current offers. In case of questions, assistance and need for additional information, do not hesitate to contact us at +359 877 729 218

    Exports from our country in September

    By mid-September, exports from our home ports already exceeded 145,000 tonnes of grain. 40,000 tonnes of wheat from Burgas are being loaded for Tunisia, and another 60,000 tonnes have already left for Algeria.

    Sunflower oil found a market in the face of Morocco, after nearly 7,000 tonnes were loaded at the port in Varna and headed for the distant destination.

    What is the state of grain crops?

    According to NIMH data, during the past period, in many places in northern Bulgaria and in some of the southern regions of the country, significant precipitation between 20-50 litres per square meter fell, which, although late for the late spring crops, improved the soil moisture conditions in the arable plowed layer, after the period of summer drought.

    For most of the next seven-day period, agro-meteorological conditions will be characterised by unsustainable weather, with frequent rainfall and temperatures around and below the climatic norms. During the period, late hybrid corn will go through a transition from milk to wax maturity. In mid-late hybrids, technical maturity will prevail.

    In the regions with forecasted rainfall, the possibilities for carrying out seasonal agrotechnical activities will be limited - the sowing of winter rapeseed, carrying out pre-sowing and basic tillage, the harvesting of sunflower and corn crops that have reached technical maturity.

    The period is suitable for disinfecting wheat and barley seeds against a number of diseases - snow mold, fusarium, hard and powdery mildew on wheat, stripe disease and net spots on barley, etc.

    Global grain exchange

    Internationally, the US sold nearly 105,000 tonnes of soybeans and just over 55,000 tonnes of wheat to Taiwan. A few days earlier, Mexico bought 257,400 tonnes of US corn.

    Iraq announced the purchase of 100,000 tonnes of wheat from the United States, and Egypt - 27,000 tonnes of sunflower oil.

    Grain in exchange for fertilizers 

    Azerbaijan asked to buy 100,000 tonnes of wheat from Moldova. The State Reserves Agency of Azerbaijan requested the delivery, offering in return fertilisers for the needs of agriculture in the Republic of Moldova.

    According to preliminary data, deliveries should be made from October 2022 to February 2023, i.e. 20 thousand tonnes of wheat per month.

    In its latest short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets, the EC says grain crop prices will remain volatile due to uncertainty about global supply levels caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February.

    Total EU grain crop production is expected to reach 286.4 million tonnes, down by 2.5% from the 2021-22 season. However, demand for animal feed and grain crops for biofuel production is expected to decrease by 1.3% and 3% respectively, and the EU has relatively large stocks of grain crops.

    EU grain crop exports are expected to increase by 14% compared to 2021-22, partially offsetting the decline in global exports caused by problems at Ukrainian sea ports and export restrictions imposed by some exporting countries.

    Black Sea region

    According to the Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture, the country should harvest about 50 million tonnes of grain against 86 million last year. This includes 19.2 million tonnes of wheat and 5.5 million tonnes of barley, respectively.

    Autumn sowing in Ukraine will begin under difficult conditions resulting from the economic situation and the inability of farmers to pay for seeds and raw materials.

    As we already mentioned, the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, stated that grain from Ukraine does not reach the poor countries of the world, but is mainly exported to EU member states.

    In response, Volodymyr Zelensky said: "Unlike Russia, we do not make a racist division of the world into those who deserve to live without hunger and those who supposedly do not deserve it. We support all people, all countries. Both those who help us and those who refrain from helping us. Once again I emphasize: Ukraine was, is and will be a guarantor of world food security," he concluded.


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