During the past week, grain markets developed as a result of international events. Initially, the commodities markets went up, as a result of the situation in the Black Sea region, but the subsequent forecasts for the world reserves caused them to return to the initial positions.
Don’t have time to read the entire market report? Here’s what you need to know:
Europe remains indebted to farmers – Imports of Ukrainian grain helped Brussels to stabilise market prices at one point, but in the end the situation turned against European farmers
Russia expects a rich harvest – Russia's wheat harvest could reach a historic 100 million tonnes, prompting global agencies to reassess the global situation.
More insights in this week’s report for our paid subscribers
Are fertilisers a problem? – international analysis reports that global fertiliser supplies remain tight and high prices are likely to continue into the new business year.
Ukraine with a collapse in acreage – Ukraine's Minister of Agriculture stated that wheat production in 2023 cannot exceed 18-19 million tonnes, given the serious reduction in acreage.
In Bulgaria, the protests of grain producers from all over the country are not yielding results for the time being.
Under the pressure of Ukrainian grain and constantly rising fertiliser prices, the outlook for domestic producers is not at all pleasant.
The outlook remains bleak for their counterparts across Western Europe, who are facing the same dilemmas. "Currently, one tonne of urea in Europe costs about 1,000 euros, and if the problem with the shortage of fertilisers is not solved, then prices may reach 2-3,000 euros.
In a situation where fuels, lubricants and fertilisers are so expensive, the prices of European wheat and corn are completely unsatisfactory, especially when Ukrainian grain, offered at dumped prices, enters the market," commented Polish farmers.
It will be interesting to see what the EU's reaction will be. Imports of Ukrainian grain helped Brussels stabilise market prices at one point, but eventually the situation turned against European farmers, to whom the union remains indebted.
In the Black Sea region, Russia's wheat harvest could reach a historic 100 million tonnes, prompting global agencies to reassess the global situation. For now, this is not expected to lead to a market crash, as exports from the Russian Federation remain risky and difficult.
On the Old Continent, the European Commission reported that exports of soft wheat from third countries were 8.06 million tonnes as of September 20, roughly the same level as last year.
France is the leading exporter in the EU with 3.15 million tonnes. The main importing countries for the EU remain Algeria and Morocco. Maize imports rose sharply to 5.90 million tonnes from 3.29 million tonnes a year ago. Brazil is the leading country for this origin, followed by Ukraine.
Spain is the largest importer in the EU. EU rapeseed imports have reached 1.30 million tonnes since the start of the campaign, up from 1.03 million tonnes last year.
Overseas, the dollar started the week with a new increase over the European currency at 0.9640 per euro. Oil prices fell, with a barrel trading at $78.30 on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday morning.
Drought continues to grip the southern United States, raising fears of a decline in winter wheat acreage. The latest figures show 53% of areas are in severe water deficit in the key state of Kansas, up from 42% a week ago.
Weekly US wheat exports this week remained low at 183,500 tonnes. Soybean export sales for the week were 446,400 tonnes and corn exports were 182,400 tonnes, both below expectations.
In Argentina, the Rosario Stock Exchange revised its estimate for corn production down to 56 million tonnes from 58 million tonnes last month, and wheat production to 16.5 million tonnes from 17.7 million tonnes, as a result of continued water shortages. Soybean production alone was revised upwards to 48 million tonnes from 47 million tonnes, mainly as a result of increased acreage.
World markets
Futures by the 27th of September| Wheat | |||
| Data |
Chicago 12. 2022 (per/tonne) |
London 11. 2022 (per/tonne) |
Paris 12. 2022 (per/tonne) |
| 21.09 |
$ 332,04 |
£ 282,50 |
€ 348,00 |
| 22.09 |
$ 334,61 |
£ 282,00 |
€ 349,50 |
| 23.09 |
$ 323,50 |
£ 284,20 |
€ 346,00 |
| 26.09 |
$ 315,23 |
£ 287,50 |
€ 343,75 |
| 27.09 |
$ 316,00 |
£ 288,00 |
€ 345,50 |
| Corn | |||
| Data |
Chicago 12. 2022 (per/tonne) |
Paris 11. 2022 (per/tonne) |
|
| 21.09 |
$ 269,88 |
€ 338,00 |
|
| 22.09 |
$ 270,96 |
€ 338,00 |
|
| 23.09 |
$ 266,44 |
€ 338,75 |
|
| 26.09 |
$ 262,30 |
€ 335,00 |
|
| 27.09 |
$ 263,00 |
€ 334,75 |
|
Source: Euronext, CME, ICE
The real market in Agriniser
Trending prices according to negotiations in the platform
| Feed wheat | Corn | |
| Region | Price excl VAT | Price excl VAT |
| North-West | 592 bgn/t. | 565 bgn/t. |
| North Central | 595 bgn/t. | 569 bgn/t. |
| North-East | 618 bgn/t. | 584 bgn/t. |
| South-East | 615 bgn/t. | 581 bgn/t. |
| South Central | 610 bgn/t. | 574 bgn/t. |
| South-West | 594 bgn/t. | 571 bgn/t. |
| Cereals | Price excl VAT |
| Wheat | 641 bgn/t. |
| Sunflower seeds | 986 bgn/t. |
The week at Agriniser
The week at the platform showed that farmers are not willing to sacrifice quality despite rising fertiliser prices.
We have seen increased interest in fertilisers for the fall campaign and forward thinking.
An analysis by Trade Data Monitor reported that global fertiliser supplies remain tight and high prices are likely to continue into the new business year. Producers may be able to ramp up production, but will have to contend with expectedly higher raw material prices.
The new category – fertilisers at Agrinizer came at the right time. With just one click, you can now review the different offers for the fertilisers you need, negotiate and reach a more favorable deal, which will guarantee your production in the future.
Exports from our country in September
Days before the end of September, exports from our home ports reached nearly 320,000 tonnes of grain. Algeria remains the main buyer of Bulgarian wheat, with nearly 120,000 tonnes.
Belgium made a purchase of 60,000 tonnes of rapeseed, which sailed from the port of Burgas a few days ago.
Iraq also made an interesting purchase. At the moment, their vessel is being loaded with cargo at the port of Varna with 20,000 tonnes of sunflower oil.
What is the state of grain crops?
According to NIMH data, during the past period, in places in the southern regions, precipitation of economic significance between 15-20 litres per square meter fell and provided the necessary moisture for the germination of the winter rapeseed sown in the agrotechnical period.
During the next seven-day period, an improvement in agro-meteorological conditions is forecasted. During the period, the late maize hybrids will complete their development and enter full maturity.
During the period, significant rainfall is not expected and the conditions will allow finishing the harvest of the late spring crops, carrying out pre-sowing tillage of the areas intended for sowing with wheat and barley and applying mineral fertilisers.
The agrotechnical period for the sowing of winter grain crops in the high fields and the Pre-Balkans has also started. By the end of September, the conditions will allow to overcome the delays in the sowing of winter rapeseed.
Global grain exchange
On the international stage, the US sold another 105,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico. Jordan announced it was buying 45,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 120,000 tonnes of feed barley.
The IGC revised upward its estimate for world wheat production to 792 million tonnes from 778 million a month ago and 782 million last year. The increase is mainly the result of production in Russia, which is shaping up to be a record.
However, Russian wheat exports are estimated at just 36.5 million tonnes, leading to a sharp rise in domestic stocks. However, the IGC lowered its estimate of world corn production to 1.168 billion tonnes, taking into account the downward revision for US production, posted at 354.2 million tonnes against 364.7 million previously.
Black Sea region
Russia's wheat harvest could reach a historic 100 million tonnes, according to consulting agency SovEcon. This also determines the country's efforts to export large quantities in the current complex political situation.
Farmers across the country are finishing harvesting the bountiful harvest after good growing conditions through the growing season. A huge supply would normally help push down global prices. But so far this season, government export taxes and logistical problems due to the war in Ukraine have kept more grain than usual at home.
We remind you that last week Russia reduced export duties to 2,476.6 rubles per tonne for wheat, 2,152.6 rubles for barley and 3,659.9 rubles for corn.
"Storage is already a problem for some farmers," shared SovEcon managing director Andrey Sizov. “We haven't seen anything like this since 2017-18.” Russian wheat export prices have recently become more competitive against other sources such as France and the US, meaning supplies could increase. Higher prices and problems transporting Russian cargo caused some insurers and banks to shun Russian goods after their February incursion into Ukraine and slowed exports for the season. Food exports are not subject to sanctions, but some institutions are wary of doing business with Russia as a result of these measures," he added.
In Ukraine, autumn sowing is speeding up thanks to the good weather. Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture estimates that 4.7 million tonnes of grain have left Ukrainian ports since the corridor was established.
The Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture stated that the production of wheat in 2023 cannot exceed 18-19 million tons, given the serious reduction in acreage.